Monsoon 2015 is becoming a contentious issue day by day. And, with IMD predicting a second straight drought year for the country, a massive challenge could lie ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious plans of reviving India’s subdued economy. But, in this article we will provide sufficient reasons to believe that Monsoon 2015 will be promising for the farmers.
Impact of Monsoon 2015 on Agriculture
Indian economy largely depends on agriculture, making Monsoon an important phenomenon in the country. Several states of India do not have proper irrigational facilities. Agriculture in these areas are rainfed and depends on Monsoon rains. The main Kharif or Monsoon crops cultivated in India are Paddy, Soybean, Cotton and Groundnut.
Though the overall performance of Monsoon 2015 will be normal, it will be weak in the sub-divisions of South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, East Madhya Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh.
After extensive research in the areas under irrigation in the above states, Skymet has deduced that Madhya Pradesh will be the worst affected this year. The tables below will bring out a better picture.
Kharif crops grown in Madhya Pradesh:
Madhya Pradesh contributes about 53.13% of the total production of Soybean in India. Looking at the above figures, we can say that the production of Soybean will be grave. The state produces only 2.66% of the total production of Paddy and 6.53% of Groundnut. Since the state’s contribution of Paddy and Groundnut is meagre, the overall production in India will not be affected much.
Kharif crops grown in Karnataka:
Karnataka contributes about 8.63% of the total production of Groundnut, 3.14% of Paddy and 3.55% of Cotton. Though the percentage of rainfed soybean cultivation is high in Karnataka, overall production of the crop in India will not be affected because the state contributes only 1.57% of the produce.
Kharif crops grown in Tamil Nadu:
About 18.11% of the total Groundnut production in the country comes from Tamil Nadu. The percentage of cotton produced here is just 1.47%. Therefore, we could say that the total production of cotton in India will not be affected due to poor rains in Tamil Nadu.
Agricultural produce will not be hampered in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana as these states have sufficient irrigational facilities and will also receive normal rains throughout the four-month long Monsoon season. The West Coast will also receive good showers, while Peninsular India will be at a moderate risk of below normal Monsoon rains.
Quantitative evaluation of the Monsoon season, few months prior, help farmers to prepare the fields. Accordingly, they can also estimate the quantity and quality of seeds to be sown.
This year El Nino has been causing a lot of anxiety among people. But, Skymet has been reiterating that the El Nino has been continuing since 2014 and is not a cause of much concern, click here to read the full report.
Weather agencies worldwide are evaluating the performance of Monsoon 2015 under the scare of El Nino. However, Skymet has been assessing other oceanic parameters and atmospheric conditions since December 2014, and will not change its stance that Monsoon will be ‘normal’. We at Skymet believe that other forecasting agencies are over-weighing El Nino's impact on Monsoon and therefore, sticks to normal rains to the tune of 102% of the LPA.
For more updates on Monsoon in India, click here.
Image Credit: thehansindia.com
