Severe Winter Of Kashmir Valley Gets Over, Chillai Bache Commences Soon

Winter phase of Kashmir Valley gets classified into three parts, called as ‘Chilas’. Most severe and longest part of the harsh winter termed ‘Chillai Kalan’ extends from 21^stDecember to 30^thJanuary. Heavy snow and excruciating cold is experienced during this period. Accumulated snow of this phase does not melt fast, lasts longer and become the lifeline for replenishing water resources for the rest of the period.

The next part starts on 31^st Jan and goes on for 20 days till 19^th February. Heavy bouts of snow continue during this phase ‘Chillai Khurd’, albeit less punishing than the previous one. This is going to end soon and the last in the list ‘Chillai Bachha’ will commence from 20^th Feb for another 10 days. This is expected to be the least troubling phase, though with few exceptions as witnessed in the past.

No powerful Western Disturbance is expected to move across the Kashmir Valley over next 10days. Weak and feeble weather systems will keep date with the region, throughout the remaining period of February.  These disturbances will confine the weather activity to mostly higher reaches and occasionally breach the  mid and lower  ones.

Trail of Western Disturbances is expected to run across the northern hilly states between 15- 16 Feb, 17-20 Feb and 23-25 Feb. No major disruptions are likely during the passage of these disturbances.  However, the last one will have more spread and strength as compared to the previous two systems.

Chillai Bachha is expected to make a soft start and  remain mild till the fag end. An active western disturbance is anticipated between 27^thFeb and 01^stMar. This may give a parting gift of rain and snow  to the ‘baby cold, officially ending on 01^stMarch. Even thereafter, Intermittent incursions of snow and rain are not ruled out and may extend up to 15^thMarch before easing out from most parts of the valley. 

State capital Srinagar has not observed any significant weather over the last one week. The maximum temperature has climbed to double digit for the 7^th consecutive day and the minimum temperature also is above freeze. Similar conditions are expected over the next 4-5 days. Brief spells of light rain are not ruled out for the city between 15^th and 17^thFeb.