The tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea has turned into a severe cyclonic storm named ‘Nanauk’, centred at latitude 16.9°N and 67.1°E longitude at 00UTC, with an estimated speed of 100 kmph gusting at 130 kmph.
Storms are generally classified under 4 following categories, primarily taking into account the wind field in the core of the storm-
- Cyclonic storm- 62 to 88 kmph
- Severe Cyclonic storm- 89 to 117 knmp
- Very Severe Cyclonic storm- 118 to 221 kmph
- Super Cyclone- 222 and above
The storm under purview needs to sustain winds of more than 118 kmph to be termed as a very severe cyclonic storm.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system is taking a northwestward direction and moving at a speed of 15 kmph. Nanauk at present is around 650 km southwest of Mumbai over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to intensify further but not pose any threat to the Indian coast as it will keep moving away towards Oman and Gulf of Eden.
The storm will lose its strength when it moves close to Oman or makes a landfall after about 3-4 days. Intensity of rain is expected to increase thereafter, over the western coast and gradually expanding to cover Saurashtra as well.
Monsoon outburst affected
The Bay of Bengal is supposed to be more active during the onset phase of Monsoon and cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea around this time is not a very common phenomenon. Any Monsoon activity over the Bay enhances the overall performance of Monsoon in India but the ones occurring in the Arabian Sea controls the monsoon current and keeps all the moisture under its grip. They influence the wind pattern and obstruct the free flow of westerly currents, required for good Monsoon rain.
Systems developing in the Arabian Sea are punched with energy drawn from the Ocean and bring torrential rain over the peripheral of the system. Compensation of this energy takes time, thus, leading to a delay of the actual outburst of Monsoon in South India. This could be an instantaneous reason for absence of rain over Mumbai. As the present system loses its grip, which could take about another 3 to 4 days, the city is likely to receive good showers.
Nevertheless, the system has been bringing Monsoon showers all along the western coast of South India. On Tuesday, Nashik received 11.6 mm of rain, Ratnagiri 7.7 mm, Yeotmal 20.2 mm, Mangalore 17.5 mm, Punalur 23.3 mm and Karwar 54 mm.
The Monsoon surge in the Arabian Sea took its course just as predicted by Skymet and turned into the first tropical cyclone of the season. Skymet has been keeping its readers updated with the developments of the system right from its inception to developing into a well-marked low pressure area, then intensifying into a depression and further into a deep depression. Finally it turned into the first tropical cyclone of the season on Tuesday and now to a severe cyclonic storm.
