The system has moved further away from the Indian coast and is presently centred in the Arabian Sea, 750 km west/southwest of Mumbai. In the last 24 hours the system has been moving at a speed of 15 kmph and is likely to intensify further. But the storm needs to sustain winds of more than 118 kmph to be termed as a very severe cyclonic storm.
As reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India the tropical cyclone will not pose any threat to the Indian coast as it will keep moving away towards Oman and Gulf of Eden. In fact weather models at Skymet suggest that the system is showing signs of weakening in the sea itself after intensifying in another 24 hours.
Mumbai will not receive any Monsoon rain unless the tropical cyclone doesn't loses its strength and dissipates into the sea which could take about another 36 hours. The city will receive good showers any time after 24 hours, intensity is likely to increase after 72 hours and Monsoon rain will continue for a week.
As Nanauk is controlling the monsoon current and keeping all the moisture under its grip, Monsoon is not extending beyond Konkan and Goa.
Why Nanauk is restricting Monsoon outburst
The Bay of Bengal is supposed to be more active during the onset phase of Monsoon and cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea around this time is not a very common phenomenon. Any Monsoon activity over the Bay enhances the overall performance of Monsoon in India but the ones occurring in the Arabian Sea control the monsoon current and keeps all the moisture under its grip. They influence the wind pattern and obstruct the free flow of westerly currents, required for good Monsoon rain.
Systems developing in the Arabian Sea are punched with energy drawn from the Ocean and bring torrential rain over the peripheral of the system. Compensation of this energy takes time, thus, leading to a delay of the actual outburst of Monsoon in South India.
Monsoon rain in South India
Nevertheless, Monsoon showers continue in South India. Here’s a look at some rainfall figures in a span of 24 hours from 8.30 am on Wednesday:
Kerala- Kannur- 75 mm, Kochi 30 mm, Alappuzha 5.2 mm, Punalur 15 mm, Kottayam 17.8 mm, Kozhikode 17 mm, Thiruvananthapuram 8.6 mm.
Karnataka- Mangalore 63.1 mm, Punalur 56.2 mm and Karwar 16.8 mm. Goa also received 40 mm of rain while Agati in the Lakshadweep islands received 80.4 mm of rain on Wednesday.
The Monsoon surge in the Arabian Sea took its course just as predicted by Skymet and turned into the first tropical cyclone of the season. Skymet has been keeping its readers updated with the development of the system right from its inception to developing into a well-marked low pressure area, then intensifying into a depression and further into a deep depression. Finally it turned into the first tropical cyclone of the season on Tuesday and now to a severe cyclonic storm.