The tropical storm Dana intensified into a severe cyclonic storm very early today. The system is centred about 260km southeast of Paradip, where the tracking weather radar is also located. The storm is moving steadily northwest with a speed of about 12km/h. It may move more of north-northwest as it nears the coastline. The storm is placed in favourable environmental conditions to sustain its strength. It may even become a borderline case of a very severe storm, and exceed the specified speed limit of 63 Knots while over the sea, albeit for a short duration only. Persistent and strong easterly winds in the upper tropospheric levels will prevent the system from any rapid intensification.
The steering current is strong enough to move the storm at a medium pace. The peripherals of the storm have already reached the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal. Kolkata and Bhubaneswar have been raining for the last few hours. Coastal stations of these two states will remain windy and observe increasing amounts of intense rains, as the day progresses.
The storm is likely to make landfall somewhere between Paradip and Balasore, both coastal stations of Odisha. In this stretch too, the most favoured spot for storm strike will be near Dhamra port, in the Bhadrak district. Another storm Yaas, had struck the same place in 2021, but in the pre-monsoon season (23rd - 28th May 2021). However, the cone of the coastline between Puri (Odisha) to Digha-Contai (West Bengal) needs to be prepared for the onslaught of the cyclone.
As the storm comes closer to the coast, the land interaction will reverse the intensification trend. Proximity of rugged terrain, increased friction, and dry air entrainment tend to weaken the storm before landfall. But, this does not offer any leverage to lower the guards, as the uncertainty and predictability are at the lowest bottom when the storm is just short of making landfall. The landfall is likely anytime, between late tonight and the early hours of tomorrow morning. The coastline of Odisha is having undulating terrain in the area of concern for landfall, and therefore, the margin of error needs to be catered for the exact landfall timings.