The four-month long Southwest Monsoon season, which comes to an end on Tuesday has not proved to be very good for the country this year as the cumulative rainfall deficit stands at 12%, which can be termed as mild drought. Rainfall deficit of 10% or above is called drought in meteorological terms.
However, there is some good news to cheer you up. After June, July and august were deficit by 43%, 10% and 9.3% respectively, the month of September is going to end at 107% of the LPA (Long Period Average), which means 7% surplus rain during the month.
Generally, July and August observe maximum amounts of rain, while June and September are the lean months. During the peaking months of July and August the daily average rainfall is 9-10 mm, which declines to 7 mm by August end. September starts with daily average rain of 7 mm, which by middle of the month declines to 6 mm and further to 5 mm by month end.
Rainfall amounts during September is less for the reason that the Southwest Monsoon begins withdrawal by mid September. It withdraws from major parts of Northwest and Central India by this time.
Retreating monsoon is more sporadic in nature with heavy rain being observed in pockets. Jammu and Kashmir, which was flooded by incessant rains during the start of the month is a perfect example of it. A few days back Assam and Meghalaya in Northeast India were facing similar conditions. Floods had created havoc in both the states.
It is to be noted that September off late has been experiencing good amounts of rain, barring El Nino years. In 2005, September observed 20.3% of excess rain, while in 2006 it was surplus by 23%. In 2007 and 2008 the scenario was same, with surplus being 18.4% and 5.5%, respectively. In 2010 the surplus figure was 12%, while 2011 and 2012 saw it at 7.6% and 11.5%, respectively.
