Core Monsoon month, August 2021, has gone on record to be the 2nd poorest since 1951. Month has ended with a deficiency of 24% of long period average (LPA). It has recorded 196.2mm rainfall against the monthly normal of 258.2mm.
The month also goes on record to register less than normal daily rainfall on 25 days. Deficiency was persistent and huge during the 3rd week when it hovered around 40% or even more.
For a good monsoon season, it is sacrosanct for the core monsoon months of July and August to perform better than normal. However, monsoon 2021 witnessed July with below normal rainfall ending at 93% of LPA. Following month August dashed all hopes to suffer one of the largest shortfall in the past 70 years.
August Rainfall With Deficiency Over 20% (1951-2021)
The year 2009 was an El Nino year with severe drought ending monsoon season with deficiency of 22%. Even month of September failed during 2009 as it registered a shortfall of 19%. Incidentally, 2021 does not seem to be a similar case. Month of September appears to be good and is expected to record healthy normal or above normal rainfall.
Month of September is expected to have 3-4 monsoon systems forming in the Bay of Bengal, driving monsoon rains over most parts. The remnant of the previous system has travelled up to Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Another monsoon low pressure is likely to appear over Bay of Bengal around 5-6 September.
This weather system will retrace the track of its predecessor and usher in good rains over eastern, central and northern parts of India. Month of September is slated to bring in recovery of monsoon rains and save the season from slipping towards a drought.
