Northeast Monsoon has entered a lean phase for the South Peninsula. Monsoon activity is mostly confined to South Coastal Tamil Nadu and generally scanty elsewhere. Karaikal, Atiramapattinam, Pamban and Tuticorin have received moderate rainfall in the past 24 hours. A similar pattern is likely for the next two days and the rains will recede, thereafter. Other sub-divisions of Northeast Monsoon have remained completely dry.
The monsoon rains have subsided for the capital city Chennai and the suburbs for the last two days. In the absence of any fresh push, the northeasterly stream will remain mild and may not lead to any rainfall for the next 5-6 days. However, the monsoon showers will resume, tentatively around the start of next week.
November is the rainiest month for Chennai, with an average of 373.6mm of rainfall. The picture, as of date, is not quite rosy. Both the observatories, Meenambakkam and Nungambakkam have not reached even the halfway mark. Meenambakkam has logged 182mm and Nungambakkam recorded 147mm of rainfall between the 01st and 19th of November. With 5-6 dry days ahead, the deficiency is likely to mount. But, there is hope of catching up reasonably well. Moderate to heavy rains are expected during the first half of next week.
A Cyclonic Circulation is likely to come up over southern parts of the Andaman Sea, in the proximity of the equatorial region, during the next 48 hours. There are promising signs for consolidation of this system and becoming a low-pressure over the same area by 22nd Nov 2024. Though it is not a favourable region for strengthening of sea-born disturbances, but the model's forecasts have a fair amount of confidence.
If the meteorological conditions get aligned with the model forecast, the evolving system will head for Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu, to start with and may expand its reach further, a little later. The prediction remains subject to review after 48 hours. In anticipation, moderate to heavy rains may lash the coast and interiors of Tamil Nadu between 25th and 28th November 2024. The capital city Chennai may also receive heavy showers to compensate for the shortfall, at least partially, if not full.
