There is a broad cyclonic circulation over central and northern parts of the Bay of Bengal, extending up to medium levels of atmosphere. This is likely to be joined by the remnant of a tropical depression, from the South China Sea. Under the combined influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over northwest and adjoining west-central BoB, in the next about three days. The appearance of this fresh system will invigorate the monsoon activity, which is lying dormant for the last two days.
Tropical depression ‘Soulik’ in the South China Sea crossed Vietnam coast, yesterday. It is moving further westward across Laos and Thailand and reach mainland Myanmar in the next 48 hours. The weakened system will cross the Arakan Coast and enter North BoB on 22nd September. Here, it will merge with the pre-existing cyclonic circulation, on the same day. Jointly, these two features will evolve a low-pressure area over Northwest BoB on 23rd Sep.
Earlier, the leftover of super typhoon ‘Yagi’ had also emerged over BoB, in a similar kind of situation. A depression formed over the area which subsequently intensified to a deep depression and triggered vigorous monsoon activity over large parts of the country. The combination of two systems, this time, may not be equally strong but still good enough to have fairly widespread active monsoon conditions cross the eastern and central parts of the country. The activated phase of the monsoon may travel further till the far end of Maharashtra and the Konkan Coast.
A low-pressure area is likely to form over Northwest BoB on 23rdSeptember. The system will consolidate and organize further and also shift closer to the coast, the same day. As the low pressure tracks westward, it will impact the weather conditions over eastern, central and few southern states. The states at risk will include Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka. The peripherals of the system will reach outskirts of Goa, Gujarat and Rajasthan, as well. Action packed week between 23rd and 29th Sep, on account of active to vigorous monsoon , is expected over large parts of the country.
Image Courtesy: RNZ
