Rajasthan witnesses frequent spells of rain during the month of July. As on August 11, west Rajasthan is large excess by 87% whereas East Rajasthan is surplus by 16%. The weather in Rajasthan has gone almost dry after August 2nd. The rain surplus is depleting fast. This is the crucial period at which irrigation is needed for the crops. Soil is drying up fast in the absence of rain. Now the water from the reservoir will be used. But in the absence of rainfall, this will not last for long. The only hope is rain which is not anticipated for at least the next week.
The axis of the monsoon trough is running close to the foothills of the Himalayas and break monsoon conditions are prevailing over most parts of the country. The impact of El Nino which was not felt until July is now visible over southeast Asia. Skymet has already predicted below-par rainfall in the month of August and September. The hope for good rainfall for farmers is fading. Dry weather conditions will continue over most parts of Rajasthan however there may be isolated light rain over Eastern districts around August 16 or 17 but this feeble rain spell will not help.
We must wait and see until unless any significant system develops over the Bay of Bengal and move towards the west, rain activities will not intensify over Rajasthan. The low-pressure area or cyclonic circulation over central parts of the country is essential to pull back the axis of the monsoon trough over Central India. The chances of such a scenario seem to be bleak for at least the next week.
