Delhi/NCR received scattered monsoon showers for the second consecutive day. The activity was patchy in nature and the intensity varied notably. The base observatory at Safdarjung recorded just 3 mm of rainfall, whereas the airport observatory Palam measured moderate rainfall of 42 mm. Noida, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budhnagar and most other pockets of NCR observed light showers with rainfall amounts in single digits. More showers are likely today and on the weekend, as well. Weather activity will spill over to the next week also.
The monsoon trough is persistently keeping close proximity to Delhi for the last few days. This is the main trigger for extended spells of active monsoon for the Delhi region. The east-west oriented trough is a semi-permanent feature which spans over a stretch, in excess of 2000 km, from Pakistan-Rajasthan in the west to Gangetic West Bengal and North Bay of Bengal in the east. Presently, there are two cyclonic circulations embedded in the feature. One small-scale compact circulation is marked over South Haryana and Delhi region and another one over Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh region. These two systems are holding the monsoon trough tight, with very little oscillation.
Monsoon showers will be light and patchy today, for Delhi/NCR. Intensity and spread are expected to increase tomorrow and the day after. The weather activity will spill over to the next week also. Finally, these two embedded circulations are likely to be subsumed in the monsoon trough. But, this will happen around mid-week next or a day later, on Independence Day. That is the time when the trough will have a tendency to shift northward closer to the hills. Since the model accuracy lowers beyond 4-5 days, the efficacy of the forecast reduces. The meteorological conditions will remain under observation and reviewed at the start of next week, for an authentic forecast.
