After a brief lull, rain and thundershowers will return to the national capital. Rain and showers, fleeting at times, will splash the city and suburbs between 03rd and 07th August. Spread and intensity of showers will be more between 04th and 06th August, than on other days. The capital city will again slip in to warm and humid conditions with partly cloudy sky and fair amount of sunshine from 08th Aug onward.
Oscillation of the monsoon trough, coupled with influence of the western disturbance were the main contributors for July rains. It seems picking up thread once again, from where it left in the next 4-5 days. Western end of the monsoon trough is already lying north of its normal position and will stay so for the next 2-3 days, Subsequently, the trough will have tendency to shift southward. During this oscillation process, the reversal of winds will commence on 06th Aug. On 06th and 07th Aug, the monsoon trough will remain in the close proximity, albeit slightly south of Delhi.
A western disturbance is marked as a trough in the westerly winds, over North Pakistan and adjoining region. This will keep the trough close to the foothills for the next 3 days. Also, a feeble cyclonic circulation or a small vortex is likely to form over and around Delhi on 04th and 05thAug. This feature will stretch the extent of showers and intensity as well.
Month of August is normally the rainiest for Delhi, during the monsoon. Based on 30 years data, from 1991 to 2020, an average of 226.8mm is expected at the base observatory Safdarjung. Airport observatory at Palam falls behind with 197.9mm, but remains the rainiest month of the season. The official record station is expected to pick up about 20 – 30 mm of rainfall during the opening spell of August. More showers are expected to follow after 10th August.