After the deluge on two successive days on 07th and 08th July in Mumbai, the monsoon fury has somewhat dimmed. Santacruz has recorded mere 23 mm rainfall in the past 48 hours. Colaba gathered 59mm rainfall in the past 24 hours. City is preparing to get in to the monsoon groove. Prolonged spell of rainy days are ahead drenching the city and suburbs. Incessant and frequent rains will once again add to the woes of Mumbaikars, more so for the working class commuting by public transport.
July, as such is the rainiest month for Mumbai with normal of 840.7mm rainfall, more than Delhi’s four month monsoon rainfall. Even, rainfall in excess of four digit 1000mm rainfall is not very rare for the city. Slight respite comes only during second half of the season and that too, not assured on few occasions. City has to grapple with hazardous weather conditions, more or less, every season discomforting normal life and routine activities.
Off shore trough from Konkan to Kerala is likely to become active. This is the main feature driving monsoon activity along the Konkan region. Mumbai, in particular has the vantage location, ideally placed for more and severe bouts of monsoon bursts. Proximity of the coastline raises the threat level on account of tides, surges and rough beaches.
Reason for the uptick in monsoon activity is likely formation of a system in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). These are the main triggers for enhancing the monsoon stream along the Konkan coast. A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over BoB on the weekend. As a precursor, a trough will develop off Odisha coast on 12thJuly and take preliminary shape of circulation on 13thJuly. This will firm up further on 14thJuly to become a closed and compact organized circulation, ripe enough to turn in to a low pressure area. The system will move partially over land the next day on 15thJuly. Subsequently, the feature will become broad, strengthening an east-west axis on 16th and 17thJuly. The shear zone and confluence of winds will reach parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan region on 18thJuly.
The above sequence of events will gradually build up conducive situation for strengthening of monsoon stream from the Arabian Sea. A week long boost in the monsoon activity is anticipated for Mumbai and suburbs. The first half of the next week could be more eventful than the approaching weekend activity. The city can look forward to early completion of its monthly target of rainfall during this week long episode.
Image Credit: Hindustan Times