Rainy Spell For Bihar At Start Of October, Strong Weather Activity Likely

State of Bihar is in line for intense weather activity at the start of October. The wet conditions  with varying intensity may last for one week between 29^thSeptember and 05^thOctober 2023.  The later half of this period will have powerful and stormy activity, more so for the eastern half and foothills of the state.  Cessation of weather activity may coincide with withdrawal of monsoon, anytime around 10^thOctober.

State of Bihar lived with perpetual rain deficit, throughout the season.  The first half of the season remained largely poor with shortfall of 48 % each in June and July. While most parts enjoyed boom of monsoon bursts in July, the state never recovered from the misery of absolute scanty rains.  When the month of August spelled doom for most parts on account of prolonged ‘break-monsoon ‘ conditions, state experienced decent rains due to proximity of northward position of monsoon trough. Despite the month of August accruing surplus of 13% rainfall, the season still remained deficient by 27% between 01^st June and 31^stAugust.  Though, the state received few good monsoon bursts but also missed the normal rains on most days in the month of September, as well.  Along with Jharkhand and West Bengal, all the three eastern states have a shortfall between 22% and 25%.

Though far delayed in the season, yet good showers are likely for the state from fag end of September till 1^st week of October.  Low pressure area is likely to form over Bay of Bengal, preceded by cyclonic circulation on 29^th/30^thSeptember. This system may become well marked low pressure and travel across West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar, following recurving track across the eastern states.  Bihar is likely to have light/moderate rainfall on 29^th Sep, 30^thSep and 01^stOctober. Spread and intensity will increase later between 02^ndOct and 05^thOct.