Skymet, in its comprehensive monsoon forecast released on 09th April 2024 stated, that the monsoon season may start with the risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse and unequitable. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall between 01st June and 02nd July has 37% of the country reeling with rainfall deficiency. 40% of the sub-divisional area is covered with normal rainfall. Earlier, at the end of June, these figures were 45% and 38% respectively. It means the opening days of July have marginally recovered the shortfall. This was courtesy, of heavy rains over the North, Center, East and Northeastern parts of the country. An oblique pattern of rainfall, with a large disparity between North and South, is expected to come up for the country during the first fortnight of July 2024.
Southwest monsoon has now covered the entire country. The monsoon trough, the longest and largest feature of the season, is fairly established. It runs from the farther posts of Rajasthan to West Bengal, across Indo-Gangetic plains. This system is the main trigger for the monsoon rains over these parts. This event controls the movement of the monsoon systems evolving over the Bay of Bengal.
The monsoon trough is running slightly north of its normal position in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The cyclonic circulation over the Central and North Pakistan region on the western side and embedded circulations in the monsoon trough over Bihar, Bangladesh and Assam on the eastern side will hold the trough in this position for some time. A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the Northwest Bay of Bengal, off the Odisha coast on the 07th/08th of July. This system will quickly move over land and drift across the states of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Under the influence of trough and cyclonic circulation, monsoon is likely to remain active over Northeast India, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, North Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan in a staggering manner, during the first half of July.
Southern parts of India are not getting any trigger to accentuate the monsoon rains. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala are likely to witness a lean phase of monsoon during this period. The scanty rainfall may even extend to southern parts of Odisha & Chhattisgarh, land-locked sub-divisions of Maharashtra and Gujarat.
North and South India is expected to have a clear divide in the monsoon activity, over the first fortnight of rainiest month of July. While decent rainfall over Northeast India and the Western Ghats between Coastal Karnataka and Konkan and the northern parts of the country may keep the monsoon flag high to maintain the overall volume of seasonal rains, the southern parts will feel the paucity of monsoon bursts.
