The coastline of Tamil Nadu in general and the capital city in particular has been observing light to moderate rains during the opening days of November. These showers are typical northeast monsoon rains without any significant system in the vicinity. The northeasterly stream blowing across the southwest Bay of Bengal and meeting the coastline with small embedded perturbations is resulting in monsoonal weather. Incidentally, this is the rainiest month for the state and the capital city as well. An uptick in the weather activity is expected and may last for about a week, albeit with modulation in the intensity and spread.
A cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the next about 24 hours. This will shift to southern parts of central BoB first and reach Southwest BoB later, by 06th-07th November 2024. Moving further westward, this will come closer to the coastline of Tamil Nadu and East Sri Lanka between 08th and 09th Nov. Later, the system will pass across Comorin and Lakshadweep region, early next week.
Light weather activity will continue for the next 3 days, till 06th Nov. Scale and coverage will increase between 07th and 10th Nov. This will be the window when monsoon activity will be moderately strong. Still, heavy rainfall may not happen incessantly, but moderate spells could be interspersed with isolated and short-duration heavy rainfall, in a few places. In addition to Meenambakkam & Nungambakkam, heavy showers may reach and cover Tambaram, Cengalpattu, Tindivanam, Puducherry and Cuddalore.
The weather system will clear the South Peninsula and Sri Lanka region by 11th Nov and roll across the Comorin and Lakshadweep area. However, the weather systems of Northeast Monsoon do leave a trail of weather activity in the rear for about 24-48 hours, albeit with reduced intensity and spread. Broad clearance can be expected around 13th Nov but is unlikely to last long. Another spell, in succession is quite likely with a short break, in between.
Image Courtesy: Canva
