During the course of 24 hours from 08:30 am on Thursday, there were isolated areas over the Northern Hills that reported hefty showers like Jammu saw 66 mm. Else, light to moderate spells was observed over places like Manali 22 mm, Nahan 9 mm, Kullu 8 mm, Shimla 3 mm, Srinagar 2 mm and Mukteshwar 2 mm.
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The present-day Western Disturbance has moved away eastwards, nonetheless the axis of Monsoon trough is most likely to shift towards the north. Moreover, the low pressure area over North Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South Uttar Pradesh will also move in North.
In consequence to these weather features, we expect rains to increase now over Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours. Subsequently, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir will also witness intensification in rainfall.
Furthermore, one or two heavy spells are anticipated over Uttarakhand during the next 48 hours, which may result in events of cloudbursts, landslides or mudslides and flash floods over the region.
Consequently, the following two to three days are very critical over the Western Himalayas regarding heavy rains. We also foresee Uttarakhand to continue with on and off rains thereafter too.
The intensity of showers will reduce over Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir from July 24 onwards. Considering this, we highly advise people to abstain from visiting the enthralling hills of North India.
Moreover, we expect good spells over the Holy Shrine of Vaishno Devi during the next 24 hours, so pilgrims are suggested to refrain from going there.
As on July 19, Jammu and Kashmir is rain surplus by 17%, while Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, both remain rain deficit by 12% and 11%, respectively.
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