During winters, the presence of the Western Disturbance marks the activity over Indo Gangetic plains such as Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar as well as Jharkhand.
However, each and every Western Disturbance does not induce a Cyclonic Circulation every time, but whenever it does, the result is prolonged rainy spell over the region.
The combination of these two systems was last witnessed around January 20, when rains covered major portion of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh on the three consecutive days of January 23, 24 and 25.
After January 25, rains started making an exit over here, however the remnants of the above combined systems traveled across Uttar Pradesh and reached till Bihar thereby giving rains there. Moreover, the period also marked the first spell over East Uttar Pradesh as well as Bihar that time. However, the spell had resulted in no way in bringing down the rain deficiency over these two regions even to a slight extent.
This deficiency is still in trend and at present East Uttar Pradesh is standing deficient at 31% while Bihar at 61%. On the other hand, deficiency is under normal category over West Uttar Pradesh at 14% while Punjab is only 11% deficient at present. However, now with some systems developing, we expect another spell of rain to soon marks its presence over Indo Gangetic plains.
The Western Disturbance will take a form over the Western Himalayas on February 4. Most probably this will induce a Cyclonic Circulation over West Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan. Thus, light rain is expected over Delhi and adjoining areas around February 4.
This system will gain more strength on February 5 and thus rains are expected to cover a larger area of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and even some parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. On February 6, these rains are expected to spread up till East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar regions, with intensity and spread remaining more on February 7.
February 8 onward, rains will start vacating western parts of the country such as Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. On the other hand, these will continue over eastern parts of the country such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal. However, 9 onward, rains will completely vacate entire Indo- Gangetic plains of the country and weather is once again expected to go completely dry here.
Indo Gangetic plains have remained 99% rain deficient so far. However, upcoming rainy spell will be marked as first good winter spell for the region, which is expected to bring down deficiency to some level.
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