Rains Elude North India, Weak Monsoon Phase Till Weekend

Monsoon rains have been erratic over the northern plains of Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.  Despite some good spells of pre monsoon showers in some pockets, the month of June remained deficient for all these sub-divisions. Courtesy, some decent showers on 05^th July and 09^th July, many parts of Punjab and Haryana have made up the shortfall, but Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and some areas over North Rajasthan still have substantial shortfall. Defying predictions of likely relief showers on the weekend, Delhi lived up to the sultry spell with sweltering mercury and high humidity.

Monsoon current, invariably looses steam to reach up to Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. Most of the weather activity happens with oscillation and proximity of ‘Monsoon Trough’. Western disturbance plays crucial role in placement of the monsoon trough and also energise the monsoon driver over north India. However, the monsoon trough has been dragged far to the south of its normal position, due to passage of the low pressure and cyclonic circulations across the central parts. This situation has triggered rampaging rains over Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Weather conditions are not for much change over North India during this week. Low pressure area over coastal parts of Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh will move across the central parts. Yet another low pressure, trailing behind will also follow more or less similar track. Monsoon trough will perpetually remain south of its normal position. Feeble western disturbance across the hilly states will make a soft attempt to slightly raise the monsoon trough.

Some parts of Punjab and Haryana will witness isolated rain thundershower on 13^th and 14^th July. Delhi, on the outskirts stands an outside chance for fleeting showers. However, warm, humid and sultry conditions will be the hallmark of weather for the entire region between 11^th and 17^th July.  Following this period, there is likelihood of the trough shifting northward and bring much needed respite, over the plains of north India.