At present, the weather remains clear and dry in almost all the states of the country. Due to the prolonged dry season, winter rainfall across the country has reached 16% below normal between 1 January to 13 February. During this period, the rainfall deficiency has been in the central, north, eastern and northeastern states. The eastern and northeastern states have recorded 73% less rainfall than normal. Central India has received 64% less rainfall than normal and the states of North-West India have received 34% less rainfall than normal. South India has been the only region with more than normal rainfall during this period. In South India, the average rainfall between January 1 and February 13 is 11 mm whereas the recorded rainfall is 46 mm, 324% more than normal.
In the coming days, this weather may change. This change is expected from 16 February. Before that, the weather will remain dry throughout India. A cyclonic circulation is currently over Central India, which will gradually move towards Odisha. Apart from this, a trough is formed from Kerala to Marathwada. Both these systems will be gradual and effective, and two opposite direction winds will arrive over Central India, due to which the weather will change and rain will start from 16 February in Central India.
The rains will begin over some areas of Chhattisgarh, East and South East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. Light rain activity can occur over rest of Madhya Pradesh and some other areas of Maharashtra and also in eastern areas of Gujarat. Rainfall is likely to occur over at some places in the southern states from February 16 to 18. Cities in South India, mainly Kerala and coastal Karnataka, may be affected. Weather in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will be mainly clear. There is a possibility of rain in some places in Telangana as well. The 64% deficiency in central India is expected to improve due to this rain.