Subdued activity could be seen over Kerala since the 15th of June and the Monsoon surge now seems to be more active over the west coast above Kerala, as Konkan, Goa and Karnataka have been receiving good showers.
Heavy showers in Kerala began to make up for less Monsoon rain in the state, reducing the rain deficit from 40% till 10th of June to 27% on the 16th which still remains. The Monsoon surge keeps on fluctuating and now seems more active over the west coast, particularly Konkan, Goa and Karnataka but reduced over north coastal Maharashtra and Kerala.
In a span of 24 hours from 8.30 am on Wednesday, Kozhikode received 14 mm of rain, Kochi 5 mm, Kottayam 8 mm. Kannaur has been the only place to have received good showers of 51 mm.
In Mahrashtra, Wardha received 46.4 mm, Harnai 36 mm, Mahabaleshwar and Nagpur 15 mm. Mumbai and Ratnagiri received only 7 mm and 6 mm of rain, respectively.
Southwest Monsoon is likely to cover some more parts of Maharashtra within 48 hours. Mumbai receives an average of 523.1 mm of rain in June but according to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the city will not be able to meet the on-going deficit. There is no significant Monsoon surge in the coming 5 days, which could bring heavy showers to mitigate the deficiency.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Southwest Monsoon has been making a slow advancement after making a sluggish start this year possible due to the tropical cyclone ‘Nanauk’, which had been controlling the free flow of westerly winds favourable for the Monsoon surge. Skymet is hoping for rain to gradually pick up over Kerala but deficiency might not be mitigated considering that 2014 is an El Nino year. El Nino in India has already made a huge impact on date of onset and may also affect the overall monsoon performance, increasing or decreasing rainfall in a region.
picture courtesy- Vivek Bendre
