Skymet Weather has already predicted that two out of three criteria, OLR and wind field, needed for declaring the onset of Monsoon have been met. It was only rainfall which has been playing hide and seek.
As per the guideline, 60% of the enlisted 14 stations in Kerala, Lakshadweep Islands and Coastal Karnataka have to record rainfall for two consecutive days to the tune of 2.5 mm each. It seems that this criterion would also match soon.
Last 24 hours has seen good rainfall along Kerala and Coastal Karnataka and parts of Lakshadweep Islands. According to weathermen, weather conditions remain favourable for more rains over these areas and we are hopeful of matching the required rainfall for the onset of Monsoon during the next 24 hours itself.
Have a look at the rainfall figures recorded across the 14 station in span of 24 hours from 8:30 am on Wednesday.
According to Skymet Weather, a cyclonic circulation has formed over Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Lakshadweep Islands. The system is in process of getting more organized in the coming days and is likely to induce a low pressure area by June 9.
This system is responsible for aligning all the required features for arrival of Monsoon. In presence of this system, there has been thick cloud cover that has reduced the OLR values below the threshold value of 200 wm^2 in the area between Latitude 5-10°N and Longitude 70-75°E.
Another criterion of wind field is also aligning. The wind speed is also blowing to the tune of 30 kmph-40 kmph in the area defined by Latitude 5-10°N and Longitude 70-80°E. Meanwhile depth of westerlies si also seen up to 600 hpa in the area bounded by Latitude 10°N and Longitude 55-80°E.
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