The weather in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and northern parts of Rajasthan has gone almost dry. The axis of the monsoon trough is running north of its normal position over the foothills of the Himalayas. Dry westerly winds are blowing over Northwest India. We expect the monsoon trough to move south, over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and West Uttar Pradesh in the next 48 hours.
Light rain activities may commence over the western parts of Uttar Pradesh, parts of Delhi NCR, Punjab, and Haryana, and at isolated pockets of Northeast Rajasthan from August 15. Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana are now in the normal rain category. We do not expect any significant jump in rain surplus over these states in the coming days. Rain activities will not be heavy to very heavy. There is anticipation of isolated to scattered light rain with a few moderate spells.
These rain activities will not last for long. The monsoon trough will once again start moving north from August 17. And Westerly dry winds will once again replace easterly humid winds.
The impact of El Nino is visible now over the monsoon of Southeast Asia including India. With think, August rainfall will be below average over the country and this trend may continue during the month of September as well.