Many parts of Punjab Haryana Delhi and the hills of the Western Himalayas witnessed heavy rain between July 8 and 10 leading to widespread waterlogging and flash floods. Rain activities reduced significantly thereafter and weak monsoon conditions are going on over North India for the last three to four days. The western end of the axis of the monsoon trough is running south of its normal position.
Haryana and Delhi may witness patchy rain during the next two days whereas rain activities over Punjab will be light and isolated. We expect the intensity and spread of rain to further increase over all these areas from July 18.
Rainfall with moderate intensity is expected to continue over Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi NCR for the subsequent 4 to 5 days, leading to significant relief from ongoing sultry weather conditions. There may be one or two heavy spells of rain which may lead to water logging in low-lying areas.
Punjab Haryana and Delhi are large rain excess. Until July 14, Punjab has recorded 78% surplus rain, Delhi 91% and Haryana is surplus by 81%. This rain surplus may increase further in the coming days.
The impact of El Nino may become evident by the end of July and may continue until August. However, there is a silver lining, models are indicating positive IOD by August which may reduce the impact of El Nino. Nevertheless, we still have to wait and see.
