South Peninsula has witnessed active monsoon conditions in July, so far. Most of the states and sub-divisions are surplus. South Peninsula as a homogenous region is the rainiest of all, with an excess of 27% rainfall, between 01st June and 22nd June 2024. The biggest beneficiaries are Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu with a large surplus of 60% and 74% rainfall respectively. The state of Kerala, which was deficit by over 40% at one stage has improved substantially. The shortfall is now limited to -13%, till 22nd July.
There is no likelihood of fresh surge picking up, to accentuate the rainfall activity. The cyclonic circulation coming up over the Bay of Bengal is rather mild. The off-shore trough from Coastal Gujarat to Kerala has weakened. It has the least strength over Kerala and light intensity for Coastal Karnataka. Konkan & Goa and South Coastal Gujarat still enjoy, moderate activity of the trough.
Most of these sub-divisions will observe scanty rains for the next about one week. The weaker phase of the monsoon may extend even further. The least weather activity is expected over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema. South and North Interior Karnataka will observe light rainfall activity. The monsoon current will remain subdued for most parts of Kerala. Extreme northern parts like Cannur and Kozhikode may still have some moderate spells. Out of all these pockets, Coastal Karnataka will remain active. Moderate showers are expected for Karwar, Honavar and Mangalore.
Due to subdued activity, the margins of excess rainfall recorded so far will reduce. Rainfall activity will pick up only with the strengthening of monsoon surge along the coast. Activation of seasonal troughs along the Western Ghats will take more than a week. Weaker than normal monsoon conditions are forecast for South Peninsular India.
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