Successive Western Disturbances have been giving intermittent rains over the hills of North India since the month of January. Yet another Western Disturbance, has been giving good rain and snow over the Western Himalayan region for the third consecutive day. Moreover, in the last 24 hours, light to moderate rain and thundershowers with few heavy spells have occurred over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Places like Gulmarg, Qazigund, Banihal, Srinagar, Manali, Dharamsala, Mandi, Una, Tehri, Dehradun and Nainital have witnessed good rain and snow. Now, the current Western Disturbance is now moving eastwards. Thus, rain intensity is expected to decrease over the state of Jammu and Kashmir and eventually over Himachal Pradesh.
However, light to moderate rain and snow activity with one or two heavy spells would continue over Uttarakhand. As per the experts, by February 16, weather would clear up. Maximums would then rise, and minimums would start falling.
Another fresh Western Disturbance which is at present over North Pakistan is expected to approach Jammu and Kashmir by February 17. Scattered rains would start to commence over Jammu and Kashmir by the afternoon of February 17. With time, the intensity spread would go up at many parts of Jammu and Kashmir. The state of Himachal Pradesh would start receiving good rain and snow by February 18 and few pockets of Uttarakhand.
After a short breather on February 19, a much stronger Western Disturbance would start affecting Western Himalayas and it would start affecting the trio states of hills February 20 onward. Heavy to very heavy rain and snow are expected February 21 onward. This system would continue to give good rains and snow up till February 23. Risk of Avalanche and landslides cannot be ruled out.
As per the records, Jammu and Kashmir is largely excess by 81%, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are excess by 28% and 47%, respectively. With strong weather systems in offing, it is expected that all the three hilly states would come under the large excess category by the end of February.
Image Credit: Skymet Weather
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