Monsoon starts withdrawing its colors from entire Rajasthan September 1 onward and by September 20, it completely vacates the state. In fact, with withdrawal of Monsoon, weather activities significantly reduce over the state and dry weather sets in. Although, some rains occur due to approach of any significant weather system, but other than that, the weather remains mostly dry.
The major reason is- whenever, significant weather systems such as Low Pressure area, Western Disturbance, Cyclonic Circulation that form over Arabian sea, after traveling in North Arabian sea, later re-curve in northeast directions toward Rajasthan and Gujarat. The result is rain over the states.
In the absence of any above mentioned weather system, weather had remained completely dry over Rajasthan for a very long period now. However, in the last 24 hours, conditions have changed and light rain has occurred over western district of the state such as Jaisalmer. This has happened in wake of a Western Disturbance and its induced Cyclonic Circulation formed over West Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh Province of Pakistan.
Moreover, due to increase in cloud cover, the flow of cold winds from Western Himalayas have been cut off and comparatively warmer winds from southwest directions have been blowing over the state. All these conditions have significantly resulted in minimums to increase over Rajasthan.
Further, with ongoing conditions, we expect isolated light rains to occur over West and Northwest Rajasthan during next 24 hours. Moreover, minimums are also expected to rise further. This situation will change around January 12 afternoon or evening onward, when weather will start clearing up and cold winds from north direction will once again commence over the state thereby leading to drop in minimums by 2℃ to 3℃. However, this drop in minimums will not be significant enough to induce Cold Wave conditions over the state.
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