Northwest India has been witnessing dry weather conditions since the last week of September. However, isolated rains had occurred over northern parts of Punjab and parts of Rajasthan. The month of October, which is the Post Monsoon season, Northwest India has been highly rain deficient.
Due to successive Western Disturbances, induced cyclonic circulations are developing over North Rajasthan and adjoining areas. However, as the Western Disturbances and its induced systems are quite weak, they did fail to give any weather activities over Northwest India.
All the states in Northwest India are highly rain deficient. In fact, overall rain deficiency of Northwest India is a whopping 73 percent. All the states including Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan are largely rain deficient. Jammu and Kashmir is the only state which is deficient by just 20 percent.
Delhi has also been seeing a rainfall deficiency of a whopping 100 percent.
Now, we expect scattered rains over East Rajasthan, parts of Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh with isolated showers over Delhi and NCR between October 22 and 24. These rains will be attributed to the development of a cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan and a trough will extend up to West Uttar Pradesh.
However, these rains will be patchy and light in nature, and while it may drop maximums to some extent but will not reduce the deficiency to a higher extent.
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