After a long wait, Mumbaikars finally got lucky as 32 mm of rain was recorded at the Santa Cruz weather station on Monday night. It has been the first heavy spell of monsoon rain in the city this season. Couples and kids all thronged to the Marine Drive and enjoyed every bit of rain in Mumbai.
On the other hand, there were reports of train services getting affected at different locations due to technical snags caused by rain and strong winds blowing at a speed of 50 kmph. Trees were also uprooted in many parts of the city. The worst hit were people returning home from work as long traffic snarls were witnessed at the Western Express Highway.
‘We were getting regular updates from Mumbai. Intermittent rain had been occurring since morning in various pockets of the city. At around 8:00 pm on Monday, heavy rain started to occur in Santa Cruz and Dadar, as well as in Kalyan in Thane district”, says meteorologist Mahesh Palawat.
After braving the sweltering heat for over a month, Monday’s showers brought in much needed relief for the weather-beaten Mumbaikars. While Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nagpur, among others, witnessed scanty rainfall till June 12th, Dhule and Sangli have been experiencing downpour since the onset of monsoon.
Impact of El Nino phenomenon
Weathermen tell us less rain in Mumbai and Maharashtra so far is a possible effect of the El Nino phenomenon. Mumbai receives heavy showers of over 200 mm in the first ten days of monsoon season. So far, it is only 80 mm, with 32 mm being recorded on Monday and 15 mm each on 14th and 15th June.
Records of last five years show that the month of June sees heavy to very heavy rain in Mumbai. In 2013, the city had received a whopping 938.8 mm of rain in June, whereas in 2009 which was an El Nino year, rain amount was mere 220 mm as opposed to normal rainfall of 523 mm. In an evolving El Nino year of 2012, rainfall was just about 312 mm. While in 2010 and 2011 rain figures recorded between 600 to 650 mm.
The table below shows rainfall amounts in Mumbai in June from year 2009 to 2014:
| Year | Rainfall | Heaviest rain in 24 hours |
| 2009 (El Nino) | 220 mm | 93 mm on June 26 |
| 2010 | 600 mm | 120 mm on June 24 |
| 2011 | 664 mm | 184 mm on June 11 |
| 2012 (Evolving El Nino) | 311 mm | 75 mm on June 27 |
| 2013 | 984 mm | 181 mm on June 9 |
| 2014 (El Nino) | 80 mm so far | 32 mm on June 16 |
These figures clearly explain the impact of El Nino on the Monsoon in Mumbai. While the monthly average was seen to be really low in El Nino years of 2009 and 2012, heavy spells in a span of 24 hours also did not exceed 100 mm, as compared to normal monsoon years of 2010, 2011 and 2013, when rainfall in a day was a whopping 180 mm.
“Our weather models are indicating below normal rainfall for Mumbai for the month of June. Rain will continue to occur but it may not be heavy enough to exceed 100 mm in a day. Rain in Mumbai is expected to be sporadic this whole month”, says Chief Statistician Makarand Kulkarni.
Agreeing with Mr Kulkarni, Meteorologist Mahesh Palawat added, “Yes, that’s true, so far Mumbai has not received enough rain. We were expecting heavy showers on Tuesday too but now it looks rain may start reducing from today. Heavy rain may start from 20th June onwards, when the monsoon surge will strengthen. Till then it may be intermittent and light”.
Skymet Weather had predicted the possible effects of El Nino on Monsoon in India, earlier in April this year. In the foreshadow, a significant drop in Monsoon rain in Mumbai was discussed, where it was stated that an El Nino may reduce the intensity and frequency of rain from the period June to September.
