Central India is rain deficient by 4 percent until now. Not only this, all the states except Gujarat have received rains in the normal range, i.e. +/-19 percent, while Gujarat is rain deficient by 25 percent. Meanwhile, Odisha is the best performer with 12 percent surplus rainfall so far.
Now, rains are expected to revive over some parts of West Madhya Pradesh, North Maharashtra during the next two to three days. While the intensity of these rains will not be heavy, these scattered showers will give some relief in the coming days.
These rains will be attributed to the formation of a confluence zone at mid-levels and a trough in the lower levels. Thereafter, gradually, the rain belt is expected to shift towards the south and showers will see a reduction over Madhya Pradesh. Meanwhile, commencement of rains is likely over Marathwada, Vidarbha, and Madhya Maharashtra between September 18 and 21.
Therefore, Central India is one region which will continue to see rains until the third week of September whereas Monsoon will start to withdraw from Northwest Plains until then. Thus, while Southwest Monsoon will begin its withdrawal process right from West Rajasthan very soon, moving to parts of Punjab etc.
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