A strong and massive Western Disturbance (a low pressure area that originates in the Mediterranean Sea) has been reported hovering over Afghanistan, parts adjoining north Pakistan, and is heading east-northeastwards to arrive over Jammu & Kashmir tomorrow 14th of February onwards. The effect of this weather system that will merge with some of the other weather systems working across the country would be large and rainy period is likely to continue for the next five days at least starting from Thursday.
North and northwest region will receive fare amounts of snowfall, rain and hail storm during this period. Southwest Rajasthan is expected to host the cyclonic circulation associated with the weather system (WD) that will move eastwards to reach Delhi on 16th of February. So rain in Delhi will increase in intensity on 15th and 16th February. Other parts in the plains, that of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh, will have weather conditions similar to Delhi. Hailstorms may break out at one or two places in a span of 72 hours in these areas.
The cyclonic circulation over southwest Rajasthan will receive moisture feed from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal that will spread rain over central, east and even over south Peninsula during the next few days.
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh will receive rainfall as moist southwesterly winds will reach here during the period. A trough of low pressure area that is connecting the northeast Arabian Sea with southwest Madhya Pradesh will facilitate these winds to reach these areas.
This trough of low pressure area while shifting eastward will then connect with a north-south trough of low pressure area that extends from north Bay of Bengal to northeastern states. This joining of trough of the low pressure area would then run from northeastern states to Kerala in the extreme south. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka Kerala and Tamil Nadu will receive rain on 17th and 18th of February. Rain in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will also reduce by then.
Indo-Gangetic plains in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and parts of Orissa will witness rain from16th of February onwards. The north-east trough running from northeastern states to extreme south will merge with the eastward moving Western Disturbance in the Himalayan region to affect the entire area.
