Rain Deficit Rises: Recovery Likely During This Week

Southwest monsoon is playing truant, ditching the  pockets which need it most and ravaging some  others uncharacteristically.  Delayed arrival first, slow and sleepy advance later and prolonged  pause and stagnation were the highlights during the first phase of onset. Then,  monsoon stream sprinted  suddenly  during the last week of June to reach most parts of the country.  Last posts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan  were trounced during the last leg and the onset was complete on 02^ndJuly, ahead of schedule date of 08^thJuly.

Notwithstanding ,  a rapid march of monsoon  in the  concluding onset phase, rainfall across various parts of the country had heavily skewed distribution.  Cyclone Biparjoy,  lashed Gujarat, Rajasthan and  Madhya Pradesh with untimely deluge but entire heartland along with South Peninsula remained parched  with accumulated  rainfall deficit climbing to 60% or more.  In the month of  June,  the highest surplus of 287% was recorded by West Rajasthan and the largest deficit of 69% was registered  by  Marathwada.  The rainiest state of Kerala was narrowly behind with the monthly shortfall of huge  60%.

Rainfall deficiency till the last week of June stood at 30%, on 24^thJune. Daily rainfall was consistently lower than normal  between 20^th and 24^thJune. Courtesy first low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal and its travel across the central and northern parts of the country, this trend was reversed. Daily rainfall surpassed the average rainfall for 8 days in a row, from 25^thJune to 02^nd July 2023. The rainfall deficit plunged to  8% on 02^ndJuly.  However, weak monsoon conditions, once again led to below normal rainfall on 2 consecutive days, 03^rd and 04^thJuly. Accordingly, monsoon deficit rose marginally to 9%.

We are still in the early days of the season as such. Such variations are the inbuilt characteristics of the monsoon.  Monsoon conditions, once again seem to be strengthening along the West Coast, eastern parts, Indo Gangetic plains and North  India. Daily rainfall is likely to exceed the normal rainfall for the remaining days of this week. Consequentially, further deficits will get arrested. On the other hand, some recovery is anticipated to shrink the deficit margin.