Between June 1 and August 12, Madhya Pradesh recorded average rainfall. East Madhya Pradesh is surplus by 2% and West Madhya Pradesh is deficient by 3%. We can say rainfall is at break-even over Madhya Pradesh. On the other hand, Chhattisgarh is not so lucky it is still lagging by 11%.
The eastern end of the axis of the monsoon trough is running near the foothills of the Himalayas. A cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining parts of Northwest Bay of Bengal by August 16, which will pull the eastern end of the monsoon trough to the south.
Rain will commence with greater intensity over Chhattisgarh and Eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh from August 16 and may continue for at least the next 4 to 5 days. Western districts of Madhya Pradesh will receive scattered light rain with one or two moderate spells.
We can say the third week of August will give much-needed relief to Central part of the country, particularly Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Odisha will also receive a few good spells of rain during this period but Rajasthan and Gujarat are likely to see dry weather.