There is an upcoming spell of winter rains for the plains of North India on the approaching weekend. The weather activity will be less in the hills and fairly widespread in the plains and more so, on 11th Jan. The rains are expected to lash the plains of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi. Looks like, most parts of Punjab may skip any significant weather activity during this event.
There is a mild western disturbance as an upper air trough is likely to move across the hills. Weather activity is expected to be the least in terms of rain and snow over Kashmir Valley. Uttarakhand may be the chief beneficiary and Himachal will witness the peripheral effect. In the plains, only isolated and very few places of Punjab, bordering West Haryana may get fleeting showers and the rest of the region may skip any significant weather activity. Also, the extreme northern stations in the foothills, like Pathankot may experience light showers for a brief period. But, overall, the weather activity for the state of Punjab may remain sub-par.
Actually, the induced circulation coming up over Rajasthan is a plains-driven system, first emerging far to the south over Sind Coast and neighbouring Gujarat. This will move northward to get parked over East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh. A major portion of Punjab, more so, the Doaba and Majha region will keep a safe distance from the core of weather activity. Some parts of the Malwa region, bordering Haryana may get light and brief spells, but, inadequate to fulfil the requirement.
State of Punjab badly needs the first winter rains of January. This is supposed to be one of the rainiest winter months for Punjab. Though, these are still the early days, but, the state has not received any measurable rains. The pocket remains largely deficit, as of now, with a shortfall of 90%. After these rains, the plains in the north will have, at least, a week-long dry spell which may go well beyond the 3rd week of January. The more it gets delayed, the harder it becomes to catch up later, as it happened last year. In Jan 2024, the state of Punjab remained in a rain deficit of 94%. Even, the state of Haryana was no better. The saving grace, then was, decent rains in Feb for both the states. Fingers crossed and hope for moderate rains for the state of Punjab in the 4th week and closing days of Jan 2025.
