However, there are some weather systems moving from east to west in the Bay of Bengal and the India Ocean during this time, affecting the equatorial region. But sometimes an associated system does affect peninsular India, which is the case at the moment.
Rain in South India
A weather system is likely to come up in the south Andaman Sea and adjoining Bay region around January 12. The system will then move westward to reach coastal parts of Tamil Nadu by January 16, subsequently affecting interior parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka for three consecutive days. During this period widespread light to moderate rain is expected in the region.
Northeast Monsoon Performance
This time, the northeast monsoon has been normal in Tamil Nadu while Kerala has observed surplus rain. Out of the 32 districts in Tamil Nadu, 21 districts observed normal northeast monsoon rain, while 5 were excess. In Kerala, the northeast monsoon was surplus by 5%. The state received 502 mm of rain against the average of 480.5 mm.
The other two sub-divisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema were hugely deficit. Coastal Andhra Pradesh received 227 .5 mm of rain against the average of 326.8 mm. Five districts in the region was deficit, while normal rain was observed in only 3 districts.
The largest deficit was observed in Rayalaseema, where only 138.5 mm was recorded against the average of 219.1 mm, which is 37% deficit. There wasn’t a single district in the sub-division to observe normal or excess rain.