Punjab and Haryana are large rain deficient as of now. Between January 1 and February 24, Punjab has received 15.1 mm rain against the normal of 42.9 mm and the deficiency stands at 65%. Similarly, Haryana has received 11.6 mm rain against the normal of 28.7 mm and the deficiency is 60%. West Uttar Pradesh has received just 4.2 mm rain against the normal of 23.7 mm and deficiency is 82%.
The main reason for large deficiency of rain over northern plains can be attributed to low frequency and reduced intensity of Western disturbances during this winter. Induced cyclonic circulations in the wake of western disturbances also remained less.
A moderate intensity Western disturbance is approaching Western Himalayas on February 28. It may induce a cyclonic circulation over Punjab and adjoining parts of north Haryana leading to scattered rain over Punjab and North Haryana as well as Northwest Uttar Pradesh between February 28 and March 2nd.
We do not expect any significant change in statistics of rainfall as these rains will not be heavy and widespread but will certainly break the dry spell. May give some relief from ongoing warm weather conditions.
