The Bay of Bengal will become an active basin for the next about one week. There are fair chances of a tropical storm coming up over the South Bay of Bengal (BoB), early next week. Though, the storm is going to be a bit atypical in terms of origin, track and intensity, yet, the southern parts of India will have to brace up for intense weather activity, at the start of next week. Following this onslaught, the Arabian Sea also may become the next target, in close succession, for stormy activities.
The first stage of any tropical disturbance is a Cyclonic Circulation and there is a broad but closed circulation already coming up over the extreme South Andaman Sea. The perturbation is abnormally close to the equatorial region, which, generally does not find favour for sustenance and growth. However, going by the numerical models, this circulation is likely to survive and consolidate, as well. It may percolate on the sea surface as a low-pressure area, within the next 48 hours.
This low-pressure area will further strengthen into a depression while keeping a safe distance from the east coast of Sri Lanka. Once it becomes depression on 24th Nov, the further track, intensity and timelines get better defined. Due to low latitude and therefore, minimal Coriolis Force, the weather system is unlikely to have explosive strength and intensification. Yet, it will get an upgrade to a deep depression and possibly a tropical storm, anytime around the end of this week or the start of the next one.
The models have inaccuracy bias after about 4-5 days and more so, for this system, which is evolving under contentious circumstances. However, after the initial hick-ups, if the weather system grows to become well well-marked low-pressure area, the level of forecast confidence will rise thereafter, to predict its path and intensity. Climatologically, Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are likely to face the fury of a likely storm. This will be the second storm of this post-monsoon season and named as ‘Fengal’ and pronounced as ‘ Feinjal’. Earlier, the first storm of this season ‘Dana’ had struck Dhamra port-Odisha, in the wee hours of 25th Oct 2024.