The first cyclone of the season MOCHA formed over the Bay of Bengal in the month of May. Fortunately, its impact was not seen anywhere on the Indian mainland except Andaman and Nicobar Islands. A cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over the southeast Arabian Sea around June 5th. A low-pressure area may develop over the same region in the subsequent 48 hours. Sea conditions are favourable for the cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperatures are warm in the range of 30 and 31°.
This low-pressure area may intensify gradually into a depression and subsequently into a cyclone. The name of the cyclone will be Biparjoy given by Bangladesh. The track of the cyclone is not clear as of now. Few models are indicating its movement in the northerly direction along the West Coast of the country. Some models indicate its movement to the north initially and re-curvature to the north-northeast direction towards Omen and Yaman.
Either way, rain activities will certainly intensify along the West Coast of the country from Kerala to Maharashtra. The cyclone will help the monsoon current to reach Mumbai on time. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along Karnataka and Maharashtra coast between June 8 and 10. And over the Gujarat coast between June 9 and 12.
The situation will get clearer after the formation of a low-pressure area. Skymet is keeping a keen watch over the system and will keep updating.