A circulatory pattern of winds is taking shape over the Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB ) and the South Andaman Sea. A broad and typical closed circulation is likely to form in the next 24 hours. This feature will be a prelude to the maiden cyclone of the season in the BoB. The incubation period is normally gauged at about 3 days before proper cyclogenesis in that area.
Environmental conditions are favourable for the formation of a tropical storm. At the inception stage, the cyclone will be more than 1000km away from the Indian coastline. Reaching the Indian coast will entail very long sea travel and therefore obsessed with more severity. Even the threatening storms, skirting the Indian coast and heading for Bangladesh are plagued with similar danger. Some of these storms do take a shortcut while over central or east-central BoB and recurve to head for Myanmar.
Since 2010, the cyclonic storms during May have either gone for Odisha and West Bengal or smashed Bangladesh. However, this does not become a deterrent for Myanmar as the storms are known for defying norms and violating stipulated tracks. There is an agreement amongst most numerical models for the development of storms over BoB but no consensus about its track and intensity. Quite understandably, that will happen only after the weather disturbance takes some shape and intensify to a depression or at least well-marked low-pressure area.
Ultimately, the steering current pattern prevalent in the upper atmosphere( above 30,000 feet) over the area of concern decides the track of these storms. For any cyclone to reach Odisha, West Bengal or Bangladesh, the initial perturbation has to cross the latitude of 15 Degree North. If it does not happen due to strong easterly winds over southern latitudes in the higher levels, the weather system will head for South Coastal Andhra Pradesh or North Tamil Nadu (low probability) and may not strengthen much. For recurving storms, the axis of the cyclone has to cross over the sub-tropical ridge, positioned between 15 and 20 Degree North around this time of the year.