Monsoon 2018 has withdrawn from most parts of Gujarat and we expect it to vacate the state anytime now. With clear sky conditions, dry and hot winds from west/southwest direction has led to significant rise in the temperatures.
In fact, few pockets of Kutch region are witnessing day temperatures above 40 degrees mark. The month of October is considered as second summer season for Gujarat, as the weather conditions usually remain dry and hot.
However, we can expect some changes in the weather in the coming days but whether it would be relief or threat, we need to watch out for.
According to Skymet Weather, a potential cyclone is brewing in Arabian Sea, which is presently seen as a cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea. It is most likely to induce low pressure area by October 5 and subsequently into deep depression and even in to tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
By this time, the system would have come over Central Arabian Sea. If this happens, this tropical storm would be named as ‘Cyclone Luban’.
Now, this is the position, which is quite tricky leaving lots of uncertainty on account of intensity and direction. From here, either this cyclonic storm head to Oman or might recurve towards Indian coast of Gujarat.
In fact, even if system gets closer to Oman, threat does not get over as this storm would be then encountering with steering winds which might take it away back to Gujarat or Pakistan. If these conditions arrive, it would be around October 12.
So, if the system moves towards Oman, the peripherals of the system would lead to cloudy weather with chances of light to very light rainfall activity over the southern and eastern districts of the state by October 7. These showers would increase a little and scattered rain and thundershower activities are likely from October 8-10. Meanwhile, weather of Kutch region will continue to remain very warm, dry and uneasy.
However, if the potential cyclone recurves, we can expect moderate to heavy showers over parts of Gujarat. But we need to wait and watch for this.
Image Credit: Gujarat Tourism
Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com