Southwest Monsoon withdrew from Delhi on 29thSep 2022, about 4 days behind the schedule date. Absolutely dry weather conditions have been prevailing for last one week. The day maximum temperature which dipped earlier to below 30°C during the wet spell, has climbed back to normal of 35°C. Slightly warm conditions are expected to prevail for another 24 hr. Cloudy sky with intermittent rains, wait in the wings to plunge the mercury once again below the normal.
Withdrawal of monsoon is not construed as complete cessation of rains. However, this likely spell is rather too close to the withdrawal and therefore gives feel of continuation of monsoon. Last year, monsoon withdrawal was delayed till 06thOctober. The incoming rains will surely delay further withdrawal from Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Gujarat.
A low pressure area is over Bay of Bengal. This is expected to ingress deep inland over central parts of the country. Since, the monsoon has exited from Punjab, Haryana and West Rajasthan, this weather system will not reach very far over plains of North India. It will have tendency to recurve from West Madhya Pradesh towards North Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Rain belt will travel across these parts between 05th and 07th October.
National capital and suburbs will experience light rain in some parts on 05th Oct. Spread and intensity may turn moderate over some areas, with sufficient breaks in between on 06th & 07th Oct. Light rain or drizzle may further become fleeting and patchy on subsequent days between 08th and 10th October. Though, little early to preempt, another circulation may come up, extending the rainy spell for 3 more days, from 11th to 13th October 2022.
