The post-Monsoon season comprises of three months-October, November and December. During these months, three things happen- a) the Southwest Monsoon gets over, b) Northeast Monsoon commences and completes its duration, amd c) winters establish over north and northeastern states.
The rainfall activity as well as its quantum is also on a reducing note. The average normal rainfall recorded for the month of October is 81 mm, for November it is 30 mm and December has the lowest of all with 17 mm.
The month of October receives rainfall mainly on account of retreating Southwest Monsoon and commencement of Northeast Monsoon. In the month of November, the Southwest Monsoon completes well before but then the Northeast Monsoon fully establishes, and it is then the major contributors.
Lastly, in December, the Northeast Monsoon, nearly reaches its completion stage. This season is also considered as a cyclone season for the Indian Seas and they too contribute in giving rains. Bay of Bengal keeps the entire East Coast under threat during this season. Whereas, frequent threats in Arabian Sea is less comparatively.
Since 2011, subdued performance is being witnessed in post Monsoon season year after year. It was the year of 2013 when the post Monsoon season ended with a surplus of 18%. Rest all the years have been deficit wherein large deficit was observed in 2011 and 2016 to the tune of 48% and 45%, respectively.
As per the experts, year of 2018 seems to follow the same track. The Southwest Monsoon gave a poorest performance in September that ended with a huge deficiency of 22%. This deficiency continued in October as well and further mounted to 56%.
Month of November was little better with deficiency reducing to 29% but December started again on the dry not. In fact, the first week of December has itself shown high rainfall deficiency of 60%.
Talking about the cumulative rainfall deficiency for the season spanning from from October 1 to December 6, the deficit seems to be around 50%. We can say that these shortages may over take the most deficit season of past ten years.
The post-Monsoon season is about to finish in another three weeks, and we do not see any chances of improvement. The chances are very bleak. Winters have just shown up in Jammu and Kashmir and are shying away from the states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Northwestern plains have also not witnessed the famous wintry chill despite entering the peak of the season.
Image Credit: World Weather Attribution/ Skymet
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