Possibility of season's first tropical cyclone in the Bay

May 22, 2014 1:17 PM | Skymet Weather Team

Weathermen at Skymet Meteorology Division in India are keeping a close eye on the depression in eastcentral Bay of Bengal. They suggest that the weather system will further intensify to become a deep depression and will move towards Bangladesh and Myanmar coast in the next 24 hours. They are also of the view that if the weather system spends more time over the water body, far from land, it could take the shape of season's first low intensity tropical cyclone in the next 36 hours.

Climatology and some weather models are indicating that the weather system will move north-northeastwards towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. Skymet Meteorology Division in India cites a trough of low in westerlies in higher latitude as a reason for this movement. The west to east movement of the weather system in the higher latitude could pull the weather system in the Bay of Bengal in a north-northeastwards direction. The orientation of clouds in the Bay of Bengal is also north-northeastwards which again indicates that the weather system will move towards Bangladesh and Myanmar.

On the other hand, some numerical models are also claiming that the tropical weather system might travel towards Odisha and West Bengal in India. Skymet Meteorology Division in India says that if that happens then Monsoon currents could reach up to these region much before time. This movement of the weather system is based on dynamic atmospheric conditions. However, instances of a weather system in the Bay of Bengal moving toward India are remote during this time of the year. The weather system has been hovering in the Bay of Bengal for the last one week after emerging as a cyclonic circulation in north Andaman Sea.

The month of April and May are considered as a cyclone period but during Monsoon, weather systems emerging in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea usually remain as a depression or deep depression and do not develop into a mighty tropical storm. So according to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, this weather system will also be the last such weather system as Monsoon is just round the corner.

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