October is the transition month for the entire country including the national capital Delhi in terms of changing weather conditions. The Monsoon by this time withdraws from the entire country. But on few occasions the withdrawal is a little late due to which the city observes some rain during the first half of the month. Thereafter the weather goes dry.
For instance, Delhi on an average receives only 17.3 mm of rain during October – bulk of it is observed initially - as the number of active Western Disturbances reduce. Rain is possible during October when there is a Monsoon air mass which could act in tandem with the Western Disturbance. But since the Monsoon has withdrawn from North and Northwest India, there are no chances of Monsoon air mass appearing.
The possibility of rain in October is largely during the first half of the month as withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon sometimes could be by the second week of the month. It is during this time when the environment is conducive for some rain.
From the second half of the month there is a complete change in the weather. The average day temperatures that settle close to 34°C during the first week of the month drop to settle at 30°C by the end of the month. Similarly, the night temperature from 22°C drops to hover around 17°C, a fall of almost 5 degrees.
In the last five years there has been only one occasion when rainfall amounts in October have exceeded the monthly average rainfall. For instance, 72.7 mm of rainfall was observed in 2013 against the monthly average of 17.3 mm.
However, with the withdrawal of Monsoon the chances of rain in Delhi is very rare now. But what is satisfying is that the hot weather conditions, particularly during the afternoon hours will start becoming cooler. And by the middle of the month the temperatures in the city will begin to drop.
