Northeast monsoon activity continues to be modest, at best, during the last week. Though, still early days after the onset on 29th October, a perk-up phase, albeit for a brief duration, is expected around the weekend. Weather activity is likely to pick up between 11th and 14th of November. It may slump again thereafter.
While 'wax and wane' of the Northeast Monsoon is an inbuilt character but prolonged silence, if any, may blemish the seasonal prospects. Most of the sub divisions over South Peninsula are still maintaining a decent meteorological status on account of good rainfall in the previous month. Otherwise, November being the rainiest month of the season, any notable shortfall may become crucial to cover up at later dates.
Currently, an east - west oriented axis of long trough is covering a wide area across South Bay of Bengal and Comorin region. The parent system is still far over Southeast Bay of Bengal , as cyclonic circulation. These features are slightly south over the equatorial belt and therefore not consequential for any major weather activity over the Indian landmass. Cyclonic circulation is likely to move westward, slowly and steadily, bringing the confluence zone closer to the sub continent landmass.
Pulse of clouds and rains will initially flock over Coastal Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 11th and 12th Nov. Later, active monsoon conditions will travel across the interiors of Tamil Nadu and state of Kerala on 13th and 14th Nov. Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka will also observe modest showers during this period of 48hr. Weather activity may slow down again from 15th Nov onward.