The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Veraval, Surat, Nasik, Aurangabad, Bhopal, Shivpuri, Alwar and Bikaner. We can clearly see in the figure above that the western arm of NLM, passing through Veraval and Surat, in Gujarat, has been stagnant since 15th of June.
Consequently, the state had hardly received any rain till Thursday, when Veraval received 39 mm of rain. Amreli also received 11.2 mm, Bhavnagar 5.5 mm, Surat 3 mm, Baroda 0.6 mm and Rajkot traces of rain. The cumulative deficit in the state has mounted to 93%. Saurashtra and Kutch region are facing a deficit of 84%.
Gujarat could be the driest state
By 15th June, Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. A poor scenario is in sight for Gujarat as Monsoon rain over the state has been delayed beyond a limit of repair.
In 2013, coastal regions of Kutch and Saurashtra received 64% excess rainfall while rest of Gujarat recorded 31% excess Monsoon rain. Only light rain is in the offing for the state and looking at present scenario it could be the driest state this El Nino year. As have been reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, a powerful El Nino spells trouble for India, which mostly faces below normal rain and occasionally even drought.
After the Monsoon foreshadow released in April, Skymet came out with its update of long range forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2014 on the 4th of July. According to it, the rainfall figure of 91% for the country as a whole is worrisome as the inbuilt error of -4% increases the chance of drought in the country to 60%.
As can be seen in the picture above, the regional distribution seemed even more alarming, with 80% chances of drought in Northwest India, 75% in Central India and 50% over South India.
Monsoon to cover Gujarat soon
With temperatures around 5⁰C above normal, Gujarat yearns for Monsoon rain. As a precursor to Monsoon onset, the state has started receiving light rain. On Wednesday, maximum temperatures in Ahmedabad and Rajkot were 5⁰C to 6⁰C above normal average at 39.2⁰C and 39⁰C, respectively.
Looking at the temperature profile we can say that temperature here are not exceeding 40⁰C like in east Rajasthan and northwest Madhya Pradesh. This could be attributed to the free flow of moist south westerly winds coming from the sea. But in absence of any obstructions, these winds are not bringing enough rain.