Monsoon cyclonic circulation is developing, one each in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal(BoB). A small vortex has already formed in the Arabian Sea, off Konkan coast. On the BoB side, as a precursor, a deep trough is likely form from North Odisha to Northwest BoB tomorrow.
A weak cyclonic circulation will appear over the next 48hr over the same area and become better organized in the subsequent 24hr. Thereafter, the system will move westward across Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
Vortex over Konkan coast will become more marked and will very gradually and incrementally shift northward. The system will remain over open sea, maintaining safe distance from the coast and yet in the proximity of shoreline.
On 22ndJune, weather activity will mostly be over South Konkan region and only scattered and light over north Konkan. However, over the next 3 days, between 23rdand 25thJune, as the system moves northward, moderate rain and thundershowers at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is expected over central and north Konkan (including Mumbai ).
The weather activity will extend to cover South Gujarat and lower parts of Saurashtra. Most intense activity with very heavy rain and thundershowers accompanied with squally weather will prevail over northeastern parts of the Arabian Sea, off South Gujarat and North Konkan.
Well marked cyclonic circulation will come closest to Porbandar, Dwarka, Somnath and Veraval coast over extreme northeast Arabian Sea on 26thJune. Moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at these places, joined by gusty winds to the strength of 40-50kmh. On 27thJune, this feature will drift away and vacate the Indian coastline.
State of Odisha will be the main beneficiary of the cyclonic circulation with scattered rainfall between 23rd and 25thJune. Rainfall belt will extend to cover Chhattisgarh on 26th and 27thJune. Subsequent 3 days, between 28th and 30th June, very intense weather activity is expected over large parts of central India, covering Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, North Telangana and parts of Maharashtra : more prominently over Vidarbha and Marathwada.
Disruptive spell of monsoon rains is expected over Madhya Pradesh during this phase. Massive weighty rains are likely to lash the state shifting posts from East MP on 28thJune to West MP, moving across the central parts of the state on 29th and 30thJune.
