Outlook for 10 day Monsoon Performance

Southwest Monsoon has been making a slow advancement after making a sluggish start this year. Nevertheless, according to the latest weather update rain is picking up now. Tropical cyclone ‘Nanauk’ had been restricting the actual outburst of Monsoon in India. Now that the system has weakened it lost its hold over the monsoon current, allowing free flow of westerly winds favourable for the Monsoon surge. Rain will gradually pick up from now on across the country. Here’s an outlook of Monsoon performance in coming 10 days:

1. A small system developing in the Bay of Bengal in the form of a cyclonic circulation will enhance rain over the west coast of peninsular India.
2. Monsoon rain will gradually pick up in Mumbai and the city will receive good showers next week.
3. Intensity of rain over the interiors of South India will also increase gradually in coming 10 days.
4. Southwest Monsoon will cover entire West Bengal, Bihar and touch east Uttar Pradesh by the 21^st of June.
5. Monsoon is still behind schedule as normally by the 15^th it should have covered Bengal, Bihar and reached central parts of Uttar Pradesh.
6. As of 13^th June, the northern limit of monsoon (NLM) passes through-

• Ratnagiri, Agumbe and Madikeri in west coast,
• Chennai in east coast,
• And Coochbehar and Gangtok in Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

The onset of Monsoon phase should normally witness significant rain and the actual outburst of Southwest Monsoon is expected in the coming week. Here’s a look at the Monsoon performance from 1^st to 10^th June-

• National - The national cumulative average Monsoon rain was deficient by a whopping 43% until the 10th June.
• Kerala and Karnataka- Monsoon rain over Kerala witnessed to be deficit by 40% while coastal Karnataka was deficit by 80%.
• Northeast India- Assam and Arunachal Pradesh were deficit by 25%. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura have hardly received rain accounting for 80% deficit.
• Sub Himalayan West Bengal- This region has been witnessing good Monsoon showers and is surplus by 60%.
• In the next 10 days, rain will increase over the country but will fail to cover up the deficiency.