According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, onset of Northeast Monsoon is expected to get delayed by some more time this year.
The Northeast Monsoon that is the principal rainy season for Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and some other parts of Peninsular India, is running behind its scheduled date. Weather conditions are also not indicative of its commencement during next few days.
The normal date of onset of the Northeast Monsoon is around October 20 with a deviation of about a week.
As per Skymet, there is no change in the wind pattern,which is expected to take some more time. No system like a trough or a low pressure area is likely to develop in the Bay of Bengal any time soon, which can trigger the onset of Northeast Monsoon.
However, a cyclonic circulation or a trough is likely to develop around October 28 over southwest Bay of Bengal off the Tamil Nadu coast. This system is expected to pound some good rains over the region and may mark the commencement of Northeast Monsoon.
The rainfall activity over Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu that occurs around middle of October is considered as the onset of Northeast Monsoon.
According to a study conducted by Rao Krishna and Jagannathan in 1953, a good Northeast Monsoon is generally associated with the deficit or normal Southwest Monsoon and vice versa. Thus going by the study, we expect Northeast Monsoon to be normal in 2015.
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