The cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast, will bring good amounts of rain over northern parts of Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka during next 48 hours. However, Kerala will receive patchy rain only. Weather models at Skymet suggest that rain over Kerala has not gained momentum yet.
Monsoon had arrived over Andaman and Nicobar Islands well before the scheduled date. But, the Monsoon current lost strength after reaching southern parts of Sri Lanka. So much so that the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) remained stagnant over Hambantota for over a week.
The NLM reached Colombo on May 28 and has not advanced further till date. Earlier Skymet and all other weather forecasting agencies across the world had predicted that Monsoon will hit Kerala by the scheduled date. However, we should not forget the truant nature of Monsoon. As have been reiterated by Skymet, before declaring the onset of Monsoon in Kerala we should follow certain guidelines. Click here to know the criteria for onset of Monsoon.
One of the main criteria for onset is that 60% of the 14 stations across Kerala and coastal Karnataka should record 2.5 mm rainfall or more for two consecutive days. During a proper onset, generally more than 60% of stations receive good showers.
Monsoon never follows a set pattern and we should always be prepared for a late onset. Monsoon defies predictions, just as it is doing this year. We can expect rain to commence in Kerala by the June 3. Peninsular India has been receiving some rain but, we have to wait and watch for declaring the onset of Southwest Monsoon. In the meantime, patchy rain will continue over Kerala.
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